UFC 321

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane via sports.yahoo.com

On October 25, the UFC returns to Abu Dhabi, UAE, with a stacked card. From top to bottom, this event is filled with championship-caliber fighters looking to cement themselves amongst the elites in the UFC. So, without further ado, let’s break down UFC 321.

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

In the main event, newly crowned undisputed heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall squares off against Ciryl Gane.

Jon Jones is gone now. Having held the heavyweight division captive for two years, Jones finally announced his retirement.

By now, we know the Jones-Aspinall saga.

Aspinall became the interim heavyweight champion after knocking out Sergei Pavlovich in one minute. Following this bout, fans clamoured for a Jones-Aspinall title fight, yet Jones continually dismissed the Englishman, questioning his resume and his right to fight him. So, Aspinall defended his interim belt against Curtis Blayes, knocking him out in, you guessed it, one minute. After Jones defended his belt against a 40-year-old Stipe Miocic, there was nowhere to run. Either fight Aspinall or retire. Jones chose the latter.

So here we are; the new era of the heavyweight division has officially begun. 

On the other side stands Ciryl Gane, a fighter with skills the heavyweight division has never seen before. Gane’s striking is second to none, with the speed of a middleweight coupled with unparalleled technique. Gane is undefeated throughout his MMA career, aside from two losses to the likes of Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. In these fights, a prominent flaw was exposed: wrestling. 

We know what Gane will bring to the table. He will bounce around the outside of the cage, catching Aspinall with unexpected strikes at high speed. If Gane can maintain distance, stay off the fence, and engage in a point-for-point striking match with Aspinall, he will be poised to pull off the upset.

Aspinall enters the contest as the heavy favourite, and rightfully so. The heavyweight champion has gone past the first round once in his career and has a 100% finish rate. Aspinall is the fastest heavyweight we’ve ever seen, and, coupled with his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, you have the most complete athelte the division's ever seen. For success, Aspinall will need to be on the front foot. He has to close the distance on Gane, either engaging his wrestling or landing that potent right hand, but regardless, distance control will determine the winner of this fight.

If Aspinall can land his right hand on Gane, the fight will be over. If Gane can drag the fight out into a slow, point-for-point pace, it will favour him.

Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern

In the co-main event, for the vacant strawweight championship, Virna Jandiroba takes on Mackenzie Dern.

Zhang Weili has left the strawweight division after years of dominance. Having defeated every formidable challenger, Zhang has now moved up for a super fight with Valentina Shevchenko. The division has never been as open as it is now, and these two women are looking to cement themselves in strawweight history.

Both women possess world-class grappling skills. Jandiroba enters the contest with 64% of her victories coming via submission. After defeating former title challenger Yan Xiaonan, she called her shot and was granted her wish.

On the other side lies an established UFC veteran: Mackenzie Dern. More than 50% of Dern’s finishes have also come via submission, and with an unparalleled BJJ game, she is a constant threat on the mat.

Ultimately, though, the fight will be decided by heart. Despite her world-class skills, Dern has suffered losses via exhaustion, unable to back up her elite skills with cardio.

If Dern is able to maintain constant output and throw up frequent submissions, she will be poised for success. Still, if Jandiroba overwhelms her with sheer physicality, the fight could conclude quickly.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista

In the featured bout of the evening, a bantamweight title eliminator takes place between Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista.

Prior to his last contest, Nurmagomedov was an undefeated worldbeater, steamrolling through the bantamweight elite with minimal resistance. However, he suffered his first career loss at the hands of bantamweight GOAT, Merab Dvalishvili. Despite the loss, Umar gave Merab his toughest fight to date, securing the first two rounds before losing the next three.

Nurmagomedov possesses superior wrestling and striking skills, but Merab’s freakish cardio took over, and the Russian couldn’t keep up.

Regarding his fight with Bautista, Nurmagomedov needs to make a statement. He will need to finish this fight quickly, and, as the heavy favorite, the pressure is stacked on his shoulders.

Umar’s forte is wrestling. Training under Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar has developed unparalleled wrestling skills. On top of this, he has put together an elite striking repertoire, being a threat to finish fights by knockout or submission.

On the other side lies a fighter who’s worked his way through everything imaginable to secure this fight. Bautista, a UFC veteran, has never made it this far in his career. If he emerges victorious, with the division lacking challengers, he will guarantee himself a title shot against Merab.

Bautista is coming off a dominant victory over UFC newcomer Patchy Mix, a fight that, at the time, many expected him to lose. Bautista isn’t special anywhere, but he’s great everywhere, and that’s his key to success.

Bautista needs to mix up the wrestling and striking, keeping Nurmagomedov guessing.

If Bautista can keep Umar on the back foot, stuff the takedowns, and engage in a brawl, he will be in a prime position to secure his first shot at UFC gold.

If Nurmagomedov fulfills expectations, he will be booked for a highly anticipated rematch against Dvalishvili.

Alexandre Volkov vs Jailton Almeida

A heavyweight title eliminator takes place between Alexandre Volkov and Jailton Almeida. 

This fight is a classic clash of styles: striker versus grappler.

Volkov is coming off a highly controversial decision loss to Ciryl Gane, a loss that sparked outrage in the MMA community. Many people, including Dana White, thought Volkov won the fight.

Despite this, the Russian finds himself in an identical position. If he wins this fight, he will be guaranteed to receive a title shot.

Tactically, Volkov approaches this fight the same as all previous fights: utilize his six-foot-eight frame, keep his opponent at bay, and implement his teep kick and combinations to win the fight.

For Almeida, in order to win the fight, he needs takedowns.

Despite Volkov’s solid wrestling base, Almeida’s grappling is best in the division, and if he can push Volkov back, take him down, and control him, he will be poised for a dominant victory.

Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov

In the opening fight of the main card, Aleksandar Rakic takes on Azamat Murzakanov.

This fight is a guaranteed striking match, with both men possessing knockout power. At six-foot-five, Rakic will need to maintain distance control, and land significant blows from the outside, utilizing his quick kicks and powerful hands.

Murzakanov, on the other hand, has to close the distance for success. The brutal knockout artist stands at a mere five-foot-ten inches, so he will need to push Rakic to the fence, and land significant body blows. If Rakic’s hands drop, and Murzakanov connects, the fight will be over.

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